The Satchel: Tim Graham on Bills’ PFF snubs and how low this Sabres season is on the Buffalo spectrum (2024)

The Buffalo sports scene is jumbled and perturbed. The Bills’ season was entertaining but not compelling enough to douse the molten angst engulfing the Sabres.

Excitement in Orchard Park evaporated quickly. Attention, most of it negative, has been refocused downtown.

Answers have been in short supply, but not here at The Athletic Buffalo.

When we find ourselves in times of trouble, The Satchel comes to you, speaking words of wisdom.

Do the Bills really not have a player worthy of PFF top 101 players? — Alexander S.

I wanted to see if I could get your take on PFF, what you think of it and what you think about how they came to the conclusion that first-team All-Pro Tre’Davious White was NOT worthy of being on their top 101 players of 2019. — Boog T.

Bills fans were upset with Pro Football Focus’ season-ending rundown of the NFL’s best players. All 32 teams aren’t equal, and the Bills perform greater than the sum of their parts, but you would think a postseason qualifier would land somebody among the top 101 players, especially from a defensive unit that ranked second in points allowed and third in yards allowed. Football Outsiders ranked Buffalo fifth in DVOA pass defense.

Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White was voted All-Pro and finished sixth in Defensive Player of the Year balloting. He tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions and ranked fourth with 17 pass breakups. Quarterbacks had a 38.9 passer rating, second best for defenders who faced at least 60 targets, when throwing into White’s coverage.

On the 599 targets PFF charted against White, he surrendered zero touchdowns. Seems like an elite season to me.

So I went to PFF senior analyst Sam Monson for insight into why White didn’t make the 101 cut.

“White at least was a top-quality player, though not quite as good as the consensus in our opinion,” Monson said. “He gave up significantly more yardage than other elite zone corners like Richard Sherman.

“White was close to making the list.”

The same could not be said for Jordan Phillips, who led all NFL defensive tackles with 9.5 sacks and will be looking for a lucrative contract as a free agent.

“Just watch his 10 sacks,” Monson said, referring to the way PFF analyzes half-sack plays as though they’re full sacks. “There’s, like, one legit dominant play in there. The other nine are slow, grinding, hustle plays — stunt, clean-up or pursuit sacks.

“I’m not saying they’re bad plays, but they are plays defensive linemen luck into all the time, and he just happened to luck into nine of them. He had, like, 25 total pressures over the season, and 10 of them were sacks.

“That’s just — for want of a better term — lucky. You’re not going to repeat that, and it doesn’t earn a good PFF grade.”

As our Matthew Fairburn noted in his recent analytics-based look at Bills free agency, SportRadar credited Phillips with only 19 total pressures, 65th in the league.

Data suggests Phillips’ gaudy campaign was an outlier. He will turn 28 in September and prior to last season had 5.5 sacks over four years. The Miami Dolphins waived him.

The Athletic NFL reporter Sheil Kapadia rated Phillips the 64th best free agent on the market. Throw in all the other players under contract, and Phillips wouldn’t come close to a list of NFL’s 101 best players.

Who would win a fight in each of their primes: Rob Ray or Joe Mesi? — Jonah B.

Quick answer: Ray wouldn’t last a round.

But let’s take a closer look at the matchup.

Mesi went 36-0 with 29 knockouts and by 2004 became the World Boxing Council’s top-rated heavyweight contender to champion Lennox Lewis.

Ray holds the record for most penalty minutes with one team, brawling his way to 3,189 over his Buffalo Sabres career. He led the NHL in penalty minutes twice and finished in the top five six times. He amassed 704 over his second and third seasons alone.

Mesi is 6-foot-1 and weighed in for his bouts at around 220 to 230 pounds. Ray is 6-feet and played in his prime at 215 to 220 pounds.

Ray has a massive problem in that Mesi’s “practices” were strictly fighting, often against sparring partners. Mesi knows how to throw and absorb body blows. Hockey enforcers rarely throw punches anywhere other than at an opponent’s head. A shot to the ribs or, worse yet, the liver and Ray doesn’t get off his knees for half an hour.

To be thorough in this assessment, I reached out to both Thursday for their opinions.

Mesi got back to me first and, without quoting him directly, finished his text with five laughing-tears emojis.

Ray’s take: “Two different styles of fighting. Hockey is more of a brawl, while boxing is more technical. Biggest question would be if we’re on ice or off. On ice, I win. Off ice, Joe wins.”

All right, so all Mesi needs to do is know how to skate, and I’d still give him the edge regardless.

I followed up with him.

“He’s right,” Mesi said of Ray’s answer. “I ski, but I don’t skate.”

A downhill slalom brawl sounds like a compromise and a pay-per-view that I would buy.

How do you do it? How do you guys cover these teams? It’s exhausting enough vaguely paying attention to them. I can’t imagine having to watch them and think about them all the time. — David D.

The most important factor is not taking the triumphs and defeats personally. Sanity is preserved by knowing that a Sabres four-game win streak or a close Bills loss to the New England Patriots doesn’t impact my quality of my life one way or the other. My job is to find and share the most interesting stories, and those angles avail themselves regardless of our local clubs’ successes or failures. Drinks help, too.

How much does next year’s expansion draft affect any potential moves that Jason Botterill makes this year and next? — Christopher P.

Probably not much. The NHL expansion draft is 16 months away, and the Sabres’ roster should look significantly different by summer. It damn well better, anyway. With a busy 2020 trade deadline expected and so many expiring contracts, Buffalo will have tremendous flexibility to prepare its roster between now and Seattle’s arrival.

One of the ways Seattle can most impact another team is by helping to unload salaries. In exchange for absorbing a dud contract to meet the NHL’s imposed minimum payroll, Seattle would receive a player or draft picks as a favor. That shouldn’t apply to Buffalo’s situation. While the Sabres are up against the salary cap this season, sports finance site Spotrac.com projects them as having the NHL’s third-greatest 2020-21 flexibility before re-signing their restricted free agents.

Expansion deals also will be made to protect players. To ensure that an asset isn’t lost, a team might work out a side agreement to give Seattle something else to look the other way. Maybe the Sabres retain someone like defenseman Colin Miller to offer up instead of losing a young player such as Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Asplund or Lawrence Pilut.

For the record, Seattle’s expansion draft will be the same as it was when Vegas joined the league, with Vegas being exempt from this process. The other 30 clubs can protect seven forwards, three defensem*n and one goalie or eight skaters of any type and one goalie.

No-trade clauses must be protected. That will pertain to any significant free agents the Sabres want to sign this offseason and change the complexion of this conversation.

Seattle must collect at least 14 forwards, nine defensem*n and three goalies among their 30 expansion-draft selections.

If you’re curious who the Sabres protected from the Golden Knights’ 2017 expansion, they were forwards Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno, Zemgus Girgensons, Evander Kane, Johan Larsson, Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Okposo, defensem*n Nathan Beaulieu, Jake McCabe and Rasmus Ristolainen and goalie Robin Lehner.

What position, other than wide receiver, do you think the Bills must strengthen during the offseason? — Momcilo V.

Once in my career, I’d love to cover a Bills offense that features a dangerous tight end. Brandon Beane’s approach last year was thorough, loading up on different types. Beane signed Tyler Kroft and blocker Lee Smith in free agency before drafting Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney.

The hope was that a committee approach would develop at least one consistent weapon for Josh Allen, but that didn’t materialize.

SportRadar data showed Buffalo tight ends ranked 24th in targets, 26th in catches, 24th in yards, 24th in touchdowns, 22nd in red-zone touchdowns and 25th in first downs.

Buffalo’s tight end stats: 46 catches for 604 yards, four touchdowns and 26 first downs. The NFL average was 76 catches for 822 yards, six TDs and 42 first downs.

Also on the Bills’ wish list (aside from receiver) should be a tailback to spell Devin Singletary, an edge rusher and at least one more cornerback.

Is this year’s Sabres team the low point of Buffalo sports during this century? — Colin C.

Social media creates a community where fans can exchange opinions immediately. Those reactions feed off each other. Anger resonates more than satisfaction, and fans are P-to-the-O’d over the Sabres organization’s inability to resurface from the abyss.

This season, however, is not nearly the low point. In July 2002, Adelphia Communications founder and Sabres owner John Rigas and his son were arrested for securities fraud, handcuffed and paraded into a squad car for television cameras. The Sabres went bankrupt and Empire Sports Network, the region’s cable-sports station and Sabres rights-holder, went out of business. The NHL ran the club for nearly a year, and the threat of losing the team to another market was real, especially after the league’s further embarrassment, announcing local businessman Mark Hamister had submitted the winning bid only to learn his financial backer was as crooked as the Rigases.

On the ice, the Sabres were atrocious. They won 27 games, the fourth-worst Sabres total in the pre-shootout era. Those Sabres didn’t have anybody close to All-Star caliber, let alone an MVP candidate like Jack Eichel. The bankrupt Sabres averaged 2.3 goals a game, half a goal lower than this season.

A massive scandal would need to erupt along with a worsened on-ice product for the Sabres to match those depths again.

In another lost season and a contract year for Sam Reinhart, why is it that the Sabres are so reluctant to move him away from Jack Eichel, let alone try him at center? Especially since they have a huge hole behind Jack, a skill set that seems to be tailor-made for the position and a shooter they can pair with him in either Jeff Skinner or Victor Olofsson. — Mike M.

I reached out to Kris Baker (follow him on Twitter @SabresProspects) for his thoughts. He is all for splitting up Reinhart and Eichel this season once the postseason is out of reach. Baker explained why:

“The argument that Reinhart already failed once at center is unfair, considering where he was in his career when they tried. Anyone who watched him rise through the ranks as a young, developing prospect knows he has elite hockey sense and understated ability to support his defensem*n, along with high-end vision and passing skills. Bundle in the fact that he’s not a natural shooter/scorer, and his skill set lines up with an ideal center.

“He doesn’t have elite speed, but I would challenge the thought that his skating game would not allow him to patrol the center lane and drive his own line. I always said that Reinhart would beat Ryan O’Reilly in a lap around the ice.

“I think the issue facing the Sabres is that giving Reinhart second-center minutes would cover one hole while creating another next to Eichel. One of the reasons Reinhart and Eichel work so well together is the way that Reinhart applies a playmaking mindset to the wing position while evolving as a rock-solid, net-front forward.

“Still, moving Reinhart into that second center role is a gamble I would take all day long in order to achieve a balanced lineup. The lack of secondary scoring has plagued the Sabres for far too long. Jack and Sam can still play together on the power play, but if the Sabres are out of the playoff hunt in the final weeks of the season, I am breaking them up at even-strength to test that theory heading into the offseason.”

Why not put Jeff Skinner on Jack Eichel’s line? The three best on one line works for Bruins. Take a lesson from a winner. — Wayne U.

Skinner has a reputation of being strong at even strength, and his Carolina past includes offensive production alongside the likes of Derek Ryan and Victor Rask. Skinner, who will turn 28 in May, also receives the paycheck of someone who should be able to carry a line. Buffalo coach Ralph Krueger must conjure offense on multiple lines; Skinner’s history and contract put the onus on him.

What about Reinhart centering a line with Skinner? That combo certainly could help Reinhart grasp that role.

Have you ever thought about expanding your radio show to a daily schedule? I think it would do well as competition for WGR and the syndicated radio. — Chuck M.

Thank you for listening, Chuck. While a daily show is something I’ve wondered about, I owe my professional existence to The Athletic. To host a regular show would divert too much time from my writing. Effective radio involves co-hosts, booking guests, research and pre-production day in and day out. A two-hour shift once a week provides a healthy fling that doesn’t distract from the gig that pays my mortgage.

I’m a Bills fan who lives in Calgary, and because of that I see a lot of Sabres content. I’m convinced that these two teams can really help each other out, both at the deadline and in the summer. I’m curious whether Montour would be available for trade? I think Calgary loves him and would part with Sam Bennett plus. And just for giggles: Would the Sabres ever move Eichel if Gaudreau and a package was going the other way? Money savings, maybe both need a fresh start? — Geoff P

The Sabres trade Eichel? The Edmonton Oilers traded Wayne Gretzky, so I guess anything is possible. But the fact the Sabres went through the Andy Dufresne sludge pipe to get Eichel, I can’t see the superstar captain in another sweater for many, many years.

Expect the Sabres to explore trade options involving defenseman Brandon Montour, who would be an excellent fit with the Flames and spent the first three seasons of his NHL career in the Western Conference. Flames center Sam Bennett is intriguing. The fourth overall pick in 2014 would help the Sabres’ forward-defenseman roster imbalance but wouldn’t be any real solution for their anemic scoring.

What do you make of the minuscule turnout at the Sabres fan protest last Saturday? Is it evidence that all the Duane outrage is really just 200 fans and a dozen media members shouting into the same echo chamber, or is it a sign the fan base is more apathetic than angry? — Tim H.

I’m sure Sabres management was relieved to see such a meager showing in Alumni Plaza. An army of disgruntled fans, swarming the French Connection statue and holding “SELL THE TEAM, TERRY” and “FIRE BOTTERILL” signs, certainly would have produced humiliating visuals to go along with Duane Alan Steinel’s celebrated, spleen-spewing phone call.

That said, the small turnout doesn’t indicate things are OK in Sabreland, as your second question foreshadows. Apathy is worse than anger. The passion has been wrung out of a substantial portion of a proud fan base. Rows of KeyBank Center seats, many of them already paid for, are empty each game night.

I’m curious what so many years of losing will do for a generation of young Western New Yorkers. My middle-school-aged son and his friends follow the Sabres — therefore, the NHL — only in passing. It might take a catalyst like the electrifying 2005-06 team to bring them back.

Is it time for the Bills to pick up one or two bigger-name free agents? A name edge rusher seems to be in order to make an already good defense great. Coupled with a true No. 1 wide receiver, it could make the offense good enough to contend for a championship. — Brian M.

Beane has plenty of salary-cap space to pursue prominent free agents, but the most attractive players — the ones who will field the most offers around the NFL — often lead to bidding wars and overpayment. Beane has stressed he’s not comfortable with that and has a see-ya-later number for each free agent he’ll consider.

“At the end of the day,” Beane told me a couple weeks back, “it still goes back to what I said last year, when we were aggressive, is putting values on guys and staying as close as you can within those ranges.”

Beane added: “You need to have the ability to walk away and not chase. Sometimes those hurt because you commit a lot of time and energy into recruiting.”

The big-ticket names that would match Buffalo’s most pressing needs are receivers Amari Cooper, A.J. Green and Robby Anderson and edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney, Shaquil Barrett, Matt Judon, Dante Fowler and Bud Dupree.

Might the Bills be able to find a bargain in thirty-somethings Jason Pierre-Paul or Robert Quinn? Sure. I suppose they qualify as “bigger names,” although their best years likely are behind them.

Any current rumors of likely Sabre trades for a second-line center? — J Alex F.

NHL trade rumors are a waste of time and energy. They almost always are concocted for the sake of getting you to click on a link or hit refresh like a fiend. I understand there’s an audience that enjoys daydreaming about NHL deals, but I’ve always felt it’s journalistically irresponsible to repeat — essentially, endorse — rumors that have no credible sourcing.

A handful of reporters such as our Craig Custance and Scott Burnside as well as Bob McKenzie, Darren Dreger and Elliotte Friedman are worth sharing, but you will have heard those rumblings by the time I hit the retweet button.

A lot of the Sabres’ difficulty since the tank season has been blamed on the losing culture that was created. What are your thoughts about this? On the one hand, the coach and GM that oversaw the tank are gone. So are most of the players from that time. Are the continued problems the result of a losing culture that was created or just having substandard players? — Tom O.

Let me start by saying that I was for tanking. Why not, I thought. Secure one of the top two draft choices that would land Connor McDavid or Eichel. Many assume I was anti-tank because I worked for The Buffalo News, and our most prominent voices were aghast at the idea. But I didn’t cover the Sabres at the time, so my opinion didn’t resonate like theirs did.

What I found distasteful was the way fans reveled in the organization’s collapse. Much of my reaction likely stemmed from memories of being the beat writer when Western New York was filled with so much Sabres pride. It would have been more palatable for me had the fans simply checked out like they did during the bankruptcy era.

I digress.

The Sabres aren’t struggling with tank “culture” anymore, but they still are recovering from their tank methodology. General manager Tim Murray not only maneuvered the Sabres into the cellar, but he also took a jackhammer to the basem*nt floor and went super-duper subterranean to make sure they finished with the worst record.

Pro-tank thought leaders, so dismissive of the skeptics, professed McEichel would cure everything. Snag one of them, and the rest will fall into place, they said. It will be fool-proof, they said.

The argument I see most frequently on social media today is that the tank worked because Eichel is here. But it’s revisionist history to claim Eichel always was just the first phase. Too many believers back then lauded Eichel as the solitary phase.

Failure has stemmed from the inability to build around Eichel. A portion of that difficulty are players, most notably O’Reilly, who have wanted out, who haven’t wanted to participate in a rebuild, who were sick of losing in a small market.

And with the NHL’s guaranteed contracts, turning around a roster isn’t lickety-split like in the NFL. Beane bit the salary-cap bullet in 2019 and retuned the Bills by dumping all of Doug Whaley’s players. The earliest Bills draft choice on their roster at the end of last season was defensive end Shaq Lawson, and they picked him in 2016, a year after the Sabres drafted Eichel.

It took Darcy Regier four years of meticulous roster engineering to create a Stanley Cup contender. Regier made a Daniel Briere trade here, a three-team maneuver for Chris Drury there, hit on a fifth-round future Vezina Trophy winner, had a young core that congealed in Rochester, benefited from the NHL’s post-lockout freedoms, pieced together free agents.

The Sabres need time to gather their roster. Impatience, much of it stemming from the belief Eichel’s arrival would be the cure-all, is only harming the process with every GM and coaching change.

Do I think the 2015-16 tank caused what we’re witnessing today?

Much more than many believe; much less than others believe. The Sabres are a roiling stew, and there’s blame gravy all over the place.

Is there anyone within Pegula Sports and Entertainment’s leadership who has even hinted at understanding what a poor home game experience fans endure at KeyBank Center? Obviously, the on-ice product is insulting to fans. Its cause is subject to much debate, but every other element is in the hands of PSE’s leadership. Since the “Duane rant” fans have been waiting for something or anything. I believe that acceptance of lower standards by leadership eventually seeps down to all layers in an organization, even to players. So players joining the Buffalo Sabres just have to look at how the organization presents the arena for fans paying thousand of dollars to understand how much tolerance the organization has for losing and substandard performance. Strong management dedicated to being first-class all the way would never have accepted the litany of issues that diminish the fans’ in-game experience. I am so worn down by my team and only have to drive 15 miles to experience the difference one finds at a Philadelphia Flyer home game! — Dave D.

After deafening silence, Pegula Sports and Entertainment had vice president of business administration Kevyn Adams sit down for a Q&A with Buffalo News reporter Lance Lysowski. This happened on the same day the Pegulas announced they were not renewing the contract of Adams’ day-to-day managerial equivalent with the Bills, CEO Dave Wheat.

Adams, appointed to his job five months ago, answered many tough questions from Lysowski. Adams defended the Pegulas, explained the misspelled jerseys and said the team is conducting a study about arena improvements.

Problematic is that negative narratives long have been cemented on these topics due to lack of communication with the public. No matter the truth at this point, try to convince a Sabres fan now that the Pegulas love their hockey team as much as their football team.

Sabres fans have yet to hear from the Pegulas, who live in Florida for tax purposes. Their presence at KeyBank Center has withered to the point that Eichel made an unsolicited comment about Thursday night being a big game because the owners were in attendance.

How excited are you to cover the Bills at next year’s Super Bowl? — Aaron Y.

Before I get to Tampa on Feb. 7, 2021, I’m already researching angles for the Bills putting up 50 points on Bill Belichick, for Patrick Mahomes chucking four interceptions to Matt Milano, for Adam Gase storming out of New Era Field at halftime, for Josh Allen throwing a pass 89 yards in the air to Rob Gronkowski on “Sunday Night Football,” for Corey Bojorquez stoning Jakeem Grant in the open field, for showing up to Las Vegas’ new stadium in matching Mark Davis haircuts.

All of it.

Nothing would make me happier than to cover a championship for the deserving Buffalo fans.

(Top photo: Bill Wippert / NHLI via Getty Images)