Here's why it's unlikely the Cowboys will sign Earl Thomas or Landon Collins (2024)

A growing number of Cowboys fans are behind the idea of the team adding a safety when free agency begins on March 13.

The reality is the safety market, as it stands today, is too expensive for the Cowboys. At the top of Cowboys fans’ wish lists is Earl Thomas. That list hasn’t changed in the last year. Sources at the NFL scouting combine said Thomas is seeking an average salary of $13 million per season, which is too pricy for the Cowboys’ taste.

Landon Collins, another of the talented safeties on the market, will seek his own high-priced contract when the league year begins. Eric Weddle, the strong safety Baltimore released this week, expressed an interest to keep playing at 34 years of age.

Cowboys sources said Collins, Thomas and Weddle are not on their list to chase. Collins and Thomas want too much money and Weddle’s age — along with his potential salary — concerns the Dallas front office.

If Thomas and Collins can get the salary figures they’re looking for, it would be hard to blame the Cowboys for bowing out.

Thomas is a playmaking safety in his prime, but that salary demand and his recovery from a fractured leg are too much of a risk. If the money was, say, $8 million to $10 million on average, the Cowboys might work with Thomas’ agent.

Collins is a playmaking, hard-hitting safety in his prime. It’s surprising the Giants didn’t place the franchise tag on him, and after he cleared out his locker two weeks ago, it was confirmed he wasn’t returning. But Collins’ price tag is too high for the Cowboys.

Weddle is just too old, despite his ability to make plays in the run game. Tyrann Mathieu, Lamarcus Joyner and Adrian Amos are also among the talented safeties in a free agent market that happens to be deep at the position.

The Cowboys will wait on these players to see if their price will come down, but it’s doubtful. It appears the Cowboys will stick with Jeff Heath at strong safety and Xavier Woods at free safety for the 2019 season. The safeties on the free agent market are better than Heath and Woods, but the Cowboys were pleased with the work of Woods as the 2018 season progressed. The majority of the safeties on the market fit the Cowboys’ scheme and passing game coordinator/defensive backs coach Kris Richard coached Thomas in Seattle. Thomas’ fit on the field isn’t the problem; the Cowboys just aren’t comfortable with his impact on their cap sheet.

The last time the Cowboys signed a safety to a large contract was in 2008. Ken Hamlin signed a six-year, $39 million deal with $15 million in guarantees. He lasted one more season before his release.

Placing a high value on homegrown talent is important to the Cowboys. Heath signed in Dallas as an undrafted free agent in 2013 and developed into a serviceable player. Woods, a sixth-rounder in 2017, had two interceptions and nine pass breakups in 2018. Stephen Jones said at the combine he was pleased with Woods’physical play. Yes, there are better options available at safety. But money and the potential of improved play from Woods means the Cowboys aren’t desperate.

The Cowboys’ financial priorities toward other areas of their team is another factor giving them pause about adding a free agent safety. Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence was franchised at $20.5 million this week, and along with quarterback Dak Prescott, is on target for contracts exceeding a combined $200 million. This doesn’t take into account what Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper and Byron Jones will receive in contract extensions. Spending significant money on a free agent safety doesn’t make a ton of sense for the Cowboys with the core of their team up for large contracts. Maybe the safeties’ financial demands will change this spring, but as of today, Cowboys fans need to look elsewhere for offseason spending.

Taco Charlton finished his second season as a disappointment. He was in the dog house with coaches, and a nagging shoulder injury stalled his progress. He was inactive for five games and a healthy scratch in two of those games. Among the Cowboys’ last five first-round picks, Charlton is the only one without a Pro Bowl appearance.

It’s probably too early to label Charlton as a bust, but 2018 first-round pick Leighton Vander Esch was sensational in his rookie season. Previous first-round picks Ezekiel Elliott, Byron Jones and Zack Martin are all success stories. Jones and Elliott will most likely get a second contract with the team and Martin is the NFL’s highest-paid guard.

“I never forgot when I got in NFL, Tom Landry said ‘Don’t ever complete your judgment on a lineman until his third year,’” Jerry Jones said. “You need that time. You need that experience.”

The Cowboys defensive line was shaken up when the NFL announced the suspensions of Randy Gregory and David Irving for substance abuse issues last week.Cowboys officials don’t know when Gregory will return and Irving is a free agent. Jones didn’t rule out a possible return for Irving, but their absences may allow Charlton to make an impact on this team.

Charlton’s attitude was his biggest detriment in 2018.

“Oh, I think you’re always trying to (encourage players), whether it’s positive reinforcement or negative reinforcement, for every player on your team,” Jason Garrett said. “You’re trying to bring the best out in them. Again, he’s a young player who’s done some good things for us and hopefully, he’ll continue to grow and develop.”

Time is running out for Charlton. That’s surprising considering he’s entering Year 3, but under the relative spectrum of previous first-round picks, it’s clear to grasp that 2019 is a crucial season for him.

When Jason Witten speaks to the media this spring, one of the first questions he’ll receive will surround his future in 2020. Witten is probably a year-to-year player, which could be problematic for a team trying to get younger. Whenever Witten retires, coaching — not the broadcast booth — will be in his future.

Garrett is entering the final year of his contract and it would be difficult to move Witten into the head coach role in 2020. It’s quite possible if Witten retires in 2020 and joins the Cowboys coaching staff; he’s on track to become a head coach.Eventually.

“To give you an idea of where his mindset was, when he ended up being a broadcaster, he was debating would this be a step in the wrong direction toward coaching,” Jones said. “‘I want to ultimately have that option wide open. Does this move from player to broadcasting hurt that?’ And we both agreed it didn’t.”

MLB and NBA players occasionally retire and move directly into the dugout or bench. The sidelines, though? It’s hard to see it, especially in the complex world of football. But if Jones can hire Bill Parcells, Dave Campo and Wade Phillips — surprise hires at that particular time — why wouldn’t he hire Witten? The Titans’ Mike Vrabel retired in 2010 and the next season he was the linebackers coach at Ohio State. He became the head coach of the Titans in 2018. Witten could proceed at a faster pace than Vrabel. Witten has a future in coaching; probably more so than another trek into broadcasting.

An interesting question was posed to Garrett last week: Would the Cowboys reduce Elliott’s workload?

In his first three seasons in the NFL, Elliott has a league-high 1,003 touches. Todd Gurley comes second at 979, followed by Melvin Gordon at 862. The debate on whether to sign Elliott to one of the richest running back contracts in league history isn’t going on in the Cowboys’ offices. Stephen Jones said Gurley’s $45 million in guarantees is a starting point for Elliott.

When the Cowboys extend Elliott — and it’s expected to happen this summer — this will be one point of contention, because an increased workload for a running back can lead to him falling apart sooner. Gurley’s health issues occurred toward the end of the 2018 season and his lack of touches in the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl were alarming.

Can the Cowboys afford to reduce Elliott’s workload after just three seasons?

“Well, Zeke’s a great football player and good things happen when he has the ball in his hands,” Garrett said. “But we understand the pounding that he takes. He’s a focal point of every defense that we play against. We like to hand him the ball, we like to throw him the ball.”

Over a three-year stretch, the last player to get over 1,000 touches was Houston’s Arian Foster, who totaled 1,115 between 2010 and 2012. Matt Forte led the NFL with 993 touches between another three-year interval of 2013 to 2015. Running backs take a pounding and they always have. The game devalued the running back position a few years ago until Melvin Gordon, Gurley and Elliott showed up. Playing running back became cool again, but it comes with a price. The Cowboys’ approach to structuring Elliott’s contract will be interesting. Do they give Elliott as much upfront money as possible so that the back end of the deal is more team-friendly? If Elliott’s financial numbers are manageable toward the end of his expected five-year deal, it would make it easier to release him. We’re getting ahead of ourselves, especially for a 23-year-old running back, but Gurley is already encountering knee problems at 24. This isn’t to say Elliott will have the same health issues, but it is worth noting.

“Again, a lot of positive things happen for our team when we do that,” said Garrett, in terms of giving Elliott the ball. “But we recognize the workload and we just have to make sure that we have good alternatives to that going forward, whether it’s in-house or somewhere else.”

(Top photo of Earl Thomas: Lucas Oleniuk / Toronto Star via Getty Images)